COIL INDEX

Probability of a sharp 24-hour crypto move. Higher score = higher probability.

03060801000NORMAL

Realized vol moderate, OI calm, liquidation pulse elevated, funding mixed, options pricing in moderate stress.

Bi-directional: a high reading means a sharp move is more likely — not which way.

What COIL Index measures

Crypto markets don't simply move — they coil, then strike. Leverage stacks invisibly, volatility compresses, until something forces the unwind. Coil Index measures the build-up — the loaded spring of leverage, volatility, liquidations, funding pressure, and options market stress that precedes sharp moves in either direction.

A high reading means conditions are coiled: leverage is crowded, volatility is shifting, order books are setting up for a sharp move. A low reading means the market is genuinely calm — leverage is light, vol is low, dislocations are unlikely.

COIL is direction-neutral. A high reading means a sharp move is more likely. It does not say which way. Use COIL to size risk, not to decide long vs short.

Update cadence
Hourly
Validation events
16 historical events (LUNA, FTX, Oct 2025)
Methodology version
v1.0-EXT
WHEN THE COIL INDEX FIRES, THE MARKET MOVESSix historical events. Every one preceded a sharp BTC or ETH move within 24 hours.89CRI READINGETF RumourOCT 202376CRI READINGTrump TariffsFEB 2025100CRI READINGStrategic ReserveMAR 202578CRI READINGLiberation DayAPR 2025100CRI READINGTariff PauseAPR 202588CRI READINGCascadeOCT 2025REALIZED BTC AND ETH MOVE — NEXT 24 HOURSBTC +12.3%BTC +3.7%BTC −9.4%BTC −4.8%BTC −4.2%BTC −8.4%ETH +9.9%ETH +9.9%ETH −16.9%ETH −6.6%ETH −8.4%ETH −12.8%The Coil Index doesn't predict direction — it predicts that sharp moves are coming.These six events show both.+ up move− down move·CRI peak in 24h before each event, signed max-magnitude move next 24hv1.0-EXT

COIL Index — Daily Peak

Daily peak hourly score. Bars colored by tier — anything above 70 is the alert zone. Hover an alert bar to see the BTC and ETH 24-hour move that followed. The Coil Index measures fragility, not direction — high readings precede sharp moves either way.

How it's built

Coil Index v1.0-EXT is a two-stage model. Each stage runs every hour automatically.

Stage 1 — Base score

Coil Index measures fragility through five direct signals. Realized volatility — the market's actual movement intensity, the most documented predictor in financial econometrics since Engle's 1982 ARCH work. Open interest velocity — leverage building across major venues. Liquidation pulse — cascade fuel measured at the source. Funding-price divergence — when leveraged positioning runs counter to price action, signaling crowded trades approaching forced unwind in either direction. Options market stress — implied volatility and put-skew premiums pricing in tail risk before it surfaces in spot. Each component is independently meaningful.

Stage 2 — Residual

The base reading isn't read in isolation. A second layer learns from six years of historical patterns — how a 70 reading behaves differently before a CPI release vs. on a quiet weekend, how weekend liquidity dynamics amplify fragility, how BTC-ETH correlation breaks signal regime shifts. Sixteen contextual features feed into the refinement, producing the final score.

The final score is mapped to six tiers from Quiet to Extreme. Methodology is versioned, tested against pre-committed predictions, and shipped only when it clears gates locked in writing before the backtest runs.

Read the full methodology

COIL Index — Calibration

11,154 hourly out-of-sample predictions · 16-month HOLDOUT (2025–2026)

100.0%
Hit rate at score ≥ 95
4% move · combined
8.11×
Lift over baseline at score ≥ 95
5% move · btc
97.7%
Hit rate at score ≥ 95
4% move · eth

Daily risk gauge — leveraged positions begin facing stress

AUC
0.739
HOLDOUT, 16-month OOS
Base rate
46.7%
no-skill baseline
Best lift (95+)
2.14×
vs base rate
ScoreHours flagged% of all hoursHit rate95% CILift vs base
70+1,51313.56%85.1%83.2–86.81.82×
75+1,0529.43%91.9%90.1–93.41.97×
80+6936.21%95.4%93.6–96.72.04×
85+4153.72%95.7%93.2–97.22.05×
90+1961.76%98.5%95.6–99.52.11×
95+1331.19%100.0%97.2–100.02.14×
How to read this: Each row shows what happens after a high reading. Example: when COIL Index hits 90 or higher, the asset moved at least 4% within 24 hours 98.5% of the time. Higher scores happen less often but predict more reliably. Lift = how many times better than random guessing.

Wilson 95% confidence intervals · Out-of-sample HOLDOUT (Jan 2025 → Apr 2026), no look-ahead · v1.0-EXT model trained on data through Dec 2024 · Same model evaluated against 3%, 4%, and 5% move thresholds — same score, three operational yardsticks